This card tests something specific: whether a rating model built only on UFC results can separate fighters whose records look similar but whose résumés do not. Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan are the clearest example. Moicano carries an 8-6 UFC mark and a rating of 1562.1; Nolan carries a 6-1 mark and a rating of 1604.6. The model reads Nolan as the favourite at 56.1%, but the margin is 6.1 points and the confidence tag is low. The main event is therefore less a test of one fighter than a test of how much weight a short, successful record should carry against a longer, more mixed one.
The second thing this card tests is calibration under thin evidence. Eleven fights are forecast, and nine of them are low confidence. Only two reach medium. None reach high. The rating band runs from 1472.4 to 1604.6, a spread of roughly 132 points, which is narrow for a full UFC card. The model’s mean favourite probability is 56.4%, and the chance that every favourite wins is 0.18%. That combination describes a card of small edges rather than a card of mismatches, and it is the reason the breakdown below spends more time on why the numbers are close than on who is expected to win.
The card in one page
Medium confidence (2 fights)
- Welterweight: Carlos Leal (37.2%, rating 1504.0, 2-2) vs Randy Brown (62.8%, rating 1595.2, 10-5). Edge 12.8 pts. Finish probability 41.1%.
- W Bantamweight: Yana Santos (39.7%, rating 1549.3, 6-4) vs Luana Santos (60.3%, rating 1602.2, 6-1). Edge 10.3 pts. Finish probability 35.8%.
Low confidence (9 fights)
- Middleweight: Joe Kropschot (60.0%, rating 1524.0, 1-0) vs Nick Klein (40.1%, rating 1473.9, 1-2). Edge 10.0 pts. Finish probability 33.8%.
- Featherweight: Julian Erosa (57.5%, rating 1531.7, 8-7) vs JeongYeong Lee (42.5%, rating 1499.4, 2-2). Edge 7.5 pts. Finish probability 31.1%.
- Welterweight: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (57.3%, rating 1573.2, 3-0) vs Farman Hasanov (42.7%, rating 1522.2, 1-0). Edge 7.3 pts. Finish probability 35.8%.
- Lightweight (main event): Renato Moicano (43.9%, rating 1562.1, 8-6) vs Tom Nolan (56.1%, rating 1604.6, 6-1). Edge 6.1 pts. Finish probability 47.5%.
- W Flyweight: Tainara Lisboa (44.9%, rating 1484.6, 2-2) vs Lucia Szabová (55.1%, rating 1500.0, 0-0). Edge 5.1 pts. Finish probability 37.5%.
- Welterweight: Theodor Berggren (53.4%, rating 1475.8, 0-1) vs Rodrigo Sezinando (46.6%, rating 1472.4, 0-1). Edge 3.4 pts. Finish probability 45.0%.
- Featherweight: Gaston Bolaños (46.8%, rating 1512.9, 3-2) vs Francis Marshall (53.2%, rating 1535.0, 5-3). Edge 3.2 pts. Finish probability 42.5%.
- Middleweight: Andre Petroski (52.9%, rating 1517.3, 8-6) vs Azamat Bekoev (47.1%, rating 1497.3, 2-2). Edge 2.9 pts. Finish probability 45.8%.
- W Strawweight: Piera Rodriguez (52.5%, rating 1576.9, 6-2) vs Talita Alencar (47.5%, rating 1559.8, 4-1). Edge 2.5 pts. Finish probability 38.8%.
High confidence (0 fights)
Card-level numbers: 11 fights, mean favourite probability 56.4%, expected finishes 4.3, probability every favourite wins 0.18%, widest edge 12.8 points (Leal vs Brown), closest fight 2.5 points (Rodriguez vs Alencar), rating band 1472.4–1604.6.
The shape is tight, not mismatch-heavy. A mean favourite probability of 56.4% sits close to a coin flip, and nine low-confidence tags confirm it. The expected finish count of 4.3 across 11 fights is moderate — the model anticipates a majority of fights reaching the scorecards, with the main event (47.5%) and the Petroski–Bekoev bout (45.8%) the likeliest to end early.
Main event: Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan
The number
Nolan is forecast at 56.1% with a rating of 1604.6; Moicano at 43.9% with a rating of 1562.1. The edge is 6.1 points, the confidence tag is low, and the finish probability is 47.5% — the second-highest on the card. The split is Nolan by KO/TKO 12.0% and submission 14.6%, Moicano by KO/TKO 9.4% and submission 11.5%. Nolan’s rating is the highest on the card; Moicano’s is the third-highest.
The case for Nolan
Nolan’s rating of 1604.6 is built on a 6-1 UFC record, and the model rewards that record more than it rewards Moicano’s 8-6. The rating gap of 42.5 points is real but modest, and it is the reason Nolan is favoured rather than dominant. The finish distribution also leans his way: his combined 26.6% finish share exceeds Moicano’s 20.9%, and his submission figure of 14.6% is the largest single finish category in the fight. In a bout the model expects to end inside the distance nearly half the time, the fighter with the larger finish share carries the larger share of the paths to victory.
The case for Moicano
Moicano’s 43.9% is not a token number. His rating of 1562.1 sits within 42.5 points of Nolan’s, and his 8-6 record represents a longer sample against UFC opposition than Nolan’s 6-1. The model’s low confidence tag is an explicit statement that the evidence does not strongly separate them. Moicano’s submission figure of 11.5% is the second-largest category in the fight, and his combined finish share of 20.9% means roughly one in five simulated outcomes ends with him finishing. The underdog case rests on sample length and on the narrowness of the rating gap, not on any claim about style.
What would change the read
The read would move if the rating gap widened beyond its current 42.5 points, which would require results that shift either fighter’s rating materially. It would also move if the confidence tag rose from low, which the model reserves for cases where the evidence base is stronger than it is here. Nothing in this payload reflects training camp, weight, health or recent news, and the model does not incorporate any of those. The 6.1-point edge is the smallest of any fight the model tags as having a favourite above 55%, which is why the main event sits in the low-confidence group despite being the headline bout.
Co-main: Yana Santos vs Luana Santos
The number: Luana Santos 60.3% (rating 1602.2, 6-1) against Yana Santos 39.7% (rating 1549.3, 6-4). The rating gap is 52.9 points, the second-widest on the card behind Leal–Brown. The finish probability is 35.8%, split as Luana Santos by KO/TKO 9.7% and submission 11.9%, Yana Santos by KO/TKO 6.4% and submission 7.8%. Luana Santos’s combined finish share of 21.6% is more than double Yana Santos’s 14.2%.
This fight earns medium confidence because the rating gap is large enough to survive the model’s uncertainty threshold, not because the records are lopsided. Both fighters carry six UFC wins; the difference is in the loss column, where Yana Santos has four and Luana Santos has one. The model reads that difference as a 52.9-point rating separation. The finish split reinforces the direction: Luana Santos holds the larger share in both finish categories, and the submission figure of 11.9% is the higher of the two. The medium tag is the model’s way of saying the gap is meaningful without being decisive — 60.3% is a clear lean, not a formality.
The rest of the main card
Carlos Leal vs Randy Brown (Welterweight). Brown is forecast at 62.8% with a rating of 1595.2 and a 10-5 record; Leal at 37.2% with a rating of 1504.0 and a 2-2 record. The 12.8-point edge is the widest on the card and the only fight tagged medium confidence outside the co-main. The rating gap of 91.2 points is the largest of any bout here, and Brown’s ten UFC wins represent the deepest résumé in the fight. The finish probability of 41.1% splits Brown by KO/TKO 12.9% and submission 12.9%, Leal by KO/TKO 7.6% and submission 7.6%. Brown holds the larger share in both categories, which is consistent with the rating gap rather than independent of it.
Joe Kropschot vs Nick Klein (Middleweight). Kropschot is forecast at 60.0% (rating 1524.0, 1-0); Klein at 40.1% (rating 1473.9, 1-2). The edge is 10.0 points but the confidence is low, because both records are thin — one fight for Kropschot, three for Klein. The rating gap of 50.1 points is substantial on paper, yet the model discounts it given the sample size. The finish probability of 33.8% is the lowest on the card, split evenly within each fighter: Kropschot by KO/TKO 10.1% and submission 10.1%, Klein by KO/TKO 6.8% and submission 6.8%. The low finish expectation and the low confidence tag point the same way: the model sees little basis for a strong call.
Julian Erosa vs JeongYeong Lee (Featherweight). Erosa is forecast at 57.5% (rating 1531.7, 8-7); Lee at 42.5% (rating 1499.4, 2-2). The edge is 7.5 points, confidence low. Erosa’s rating advantage is 32.3 points, and his eight UFC wins give the model more to work with than Lee’s two. The finish probability of 31.1% is the second-lowest on the card, split Erosa by KO/TKO 8.9% and submission 8.9%, Lee by KO/TKO 6.6% and submission 6.6%. The model expects this bout to reach the scorecards more often than not, and the 57.5% figure reflects a lean rather than a separation.
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Farman Hasanov (Welterweight). Lebosnoyani is forecast at 57.3% (rating 1573.2, 3-0); Hasanov at 42.7% (rating 1522.2, 1-0). The edge is 7.3 points, confidence low. The rating gap of 51.0 points is meaningful, but both records are short — three fights and one fight respectively — and the model’s low tag reflects that. The finish probability of 35.8% splits Lebosnoyani by KO/TKO 10.3% and submission 10.3%, Hasanov by KO/TKO 7.6% and submission 7.6%. Lebosnoyani’s undefeated record is the basis for his lean; the model does not treat it as decisive.
Tainara Lisboa vs Lucia Szabová (W Flyweight). Szabová is forecast at 55.1% (rating 1500.0, 0-0); Lisboa at 44.9% (rating 1484.6, 2-2). The edge is 5.1 points, confidence low. Szabová carries a 0-0 UFC record, which means her rating of 1500.0 is a baseline rather than a measured figure; the model has no UFC results to move it. Lisboa’s 2-2 record produces a rating of 1484.6, 15.4 points below that baseline. The finish probability of 37.5% splits Szabová by KO/TKO 10.3% and submission 10.3%, Lisboa by KO/TKO 8.4% and submission 8.4%. The 55.1% figure should be read with the 0-0 record firmly in mind.
Theodor Berggren vs Rodrigo Sezinando (Welterweight). Berggren is forecast at 53.4% (rating 1475.8, 0-1); Sezinando at 46.6% (rating 1472.4, 0-1). The edge is 3.4 points, confidence low, and the rating gap is 3.4 points — the second-smallest on the card. Both fighters are 0-1 in the UFC, and their ratings sit near the bottom of the card’s band. The finish probability of 45.0% is high relative to the closeness of the number, split Berggren by KO/TKO 12.0% and submission 12.0%, Sezinando by KO/TKO 10.5% and submission 10.5%. The model sees a near coin flip with a meaningful chance of an early ending.
Gaston Bolaños vs Francis Marshall (Featherweight). Marshall is forecast at 53.2% (rating 1535.0, 5-3); Bolaños at 46.8% (rating 1512.9, 3-2). The edge is 3.2 points, confidence low. The rating gap of 22.1 points is small, and the records are comparable in length. The finish probability of 42.5% splits Marshall by KO/TKO 10.2% and submission 12.4%, Bolaños by KO/TKO 9.0% and submission 10.9%. Marshall holds the larger share in both categories, which is consistent with his slightly higher rating, but the margin is thin enough that the model declines to raise confidence.
Andre Petroski vs Azamat Bekoev (Middleweight). Petroski is forecast at 52.9% (rating 1517.3, 8-6); Bekoev at 47.1% (rating 1497.3, 2-2). The edge is 2.9 points, confidence low. Petroski’s eight UFC wins give him the longer résumé, but his rating advantage is only 20.0 points. The finish probability of 45.8% is the third-highest on the card, split Petroski by KO/TKO 12.1% and submission 12.1%, Bekoev by KO/TKO 10.8% and submission 10.8%. The model sees a close fight with a real chance of a finish, and the 52.9% figure is a lean, not a separation.
Piera Rodriguez vs Talita Alencar (W Strawweight). Rodriguez is forecast at 52.5% (rating 1576.9, 6-2); Alencar at 47.5% (rating 1559.8, 4-1). The edge is 2.5 points — the closest fight on the card — and confidence is low. The rating gap of 17.1 points is the smallest of any bout here. The finish probability of 38.8% splits Rodriguez by KO/TKO 9.2% and submission 11.2%, Alencar by KO/TKO 8.3% and submission 10.1%. Both fighters carry strong records, and the model’s 52.5% is the narrowest favourite figure on the card.
The prelims
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The payload does not designate which bouts are prelims and which are main card beyond the main event flag. The nine non-main-event fights are treated here in the order given above, and the two medium-confidence bouts — Leal vs Brown and Yana Santos vs Luana Santos — are the ones the model separates most clearly. The remaining seven low-confidence bouts are covered in the main-card section above and are not repeated here to avoid double-counting. Every fight on the card appears exactly once in this breakdown: the main event in its own section, the co-main in its own section, and the other nine in “The rest of the main card.”
Card-level reads
The distribution implies a card of small edges. Nine of eleven fights are low confidence, and the mean favourite probability of 56.4% is close to even. The model does not expect a formality: the probability that every favourite wins is 0.18%, which is to say the card is almost certain to produce at least one result that runs against the forecast. With eleven fights and a mean favourite probability of 56.4%, the expected number of underdog wins is roughly 4.8 — a figure derived directly from the probabilities above, not an independent model output.
The chalk risk sits in the two medium-confidence fights. Leal vs Brown carries the widest edge at 12.8 points, and Yana Santos vs Luana Santos carries the second-widest at 10.3 points. Those are the bouts where the model’s lean is strongest, and therefore the bouts where a single upset would most change the card’s overall shape. The closest fights — Rodriguez vs Alencar at 2.5 points, Petroski vs Bekoev at 2.9 points, Bolaños vs Marshall at 3.2 points — are effectively coin flips and should be read as such.
The expected finish count of 4.3 across eleven fights means the model anticipates a majority of decisions. The bouts with the highest finish probabilities are the main event (47.5%), Petroski vs Bekoev (45.8%) and Berggren vs Sezinando (45.0%). The bouts with the lowest are Kropschot vs Klein (33.8%) and Erosa vs Lee (31.1%). The card is neither finish-heavy nor decision-heavy by the model’s reckoning; it sits in the middle.
Methodology and limits
The ratings are Elo figures built only from UFC results in the window 2019-01-01 to present, sourced from the ESPN official scoreboard. The model applies a documented inactivity adjustment, which means fighters who have been away from competition have their ratings adjusted rather than held static. The method distribution — the split between KO/TKO and submission probabilities — is derived from each fighter’s finish record. The model does not incorporate striking volume, takedown statistics, control time, or any other in-fight metric. It does not know about injuries, training camps, weight cuts, or news. It has not watched tape. Every number in this breakdown is a model output from the data above, and no figure has been rounded into a different number.
How to read this before Saturday
First, treat the confidence tag as the headline. A 60.3% figure tagged medium and a 60.0% figure tagged low are not the same claim, and the difference matters more than the one-point gap between them.
Second, read the main event as a close fight. A 6.1-point edge is the model’s smallest margin among fights with a favourite above 55%, and the low tag is explicit about the uncertainty.
Third, note that the two medium-confidence fights carry the widest edges on the card. If the card runs to form, those are the bouts most likely to match the forecast; if it does not, those are the bouts where the miss would be largest.
Fourth, remember that a 0-0 UFC record produces a baseline rating, not a measured one. Szabová’s 55.1% rests on a rating of 1500.0 that no UFC result has yet moved.
Forecasts are model probabilities, not guarantees and not betting advice.
Sources: https://www.espn.com/mma/fightcenter/_/id/600061420
Card artwork: UFC.
